Weekly Market Analysis & Algo Performance: October 2, 2026

Portfolio Links

Model 1 Performance     (To know more about it click here)

Model 3 Performance    (To know more about it click here)     

Nifty Future Long-Short Strategy Performance   (To know more about it click here)

Weekly Portfolio Performance Chart

Equity Markets:

The equity markets extended their brutal losing streak, wrapping up one of the worst months in recent history. The week began with a massive "Black Monday" gap-down. Battered by surging global bond yields, relentless foreign selling, and crude oil pressures, the Nifty 50 ended September down over 6.1%—marking its weakest September performance since 2018.

Key Market Triggers

• Geopolitics & Crude Oil Deadlock: The prolonged US-Iran standoff continued to cast a shadow over global markets. With Brent crude trading above the $100 per barrel mark, concerns over India's import bill and resurgent inflation weighed heavily on investor sentiment, particularly punishing energy-sensitive and domestic consumption sectors.
• Surging US Treasury Yields & FII Selling: A primary driver of the structural downtrend remains the relentless rise in US bond yields. The attractive risk-free rates in the US, combined with a depreciating rupee, triggered heavy, continuous offloading by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), draining secondary market liquidity.
• Heavyweight Drags: The banking and financial sectors served as the primary anchors dragging the indices lower. Massive sell-offs in index heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries broke key technical supports, accelerating the broader market slide.
  
  

Weekly recap:

The Bank Nifty Index and Nifty IT index have outperformed the Nifty Index this week.

This week, Nifty Midcap 100 Index is down -3.57 percent.

The Nifty Index is down -3.11 percent.

Key Levels for the Nifty Index Daily Timeframe

20   EMA - 23221

50   DMA - 23870

200 DMA - 24351

Nifty Weekly Timeframe Levels

Open - 23064.90

Low -   22217.30

High -  23080.25

Close - 22421.95

Nifty closed below 50 DMA, 50 EMA & 200 DMA suggesting down trend in the Nifty Index.

Model 1 & Model 3

This week, Model 1 is negative -3.13 percent and Model 3 is negative -3.43 percent. 

Model 1 has underperformed the Index by -0.02 percent and Model 3 has outperformed the Index by +0.06 percent.

Nifty Long-Short

The Long-Short strategy for the Nifty Index has returned a positive result of +9.02 percent this week.

Next Week Update

The Nifty Long-Short Strategy's current position is Short.

Long-term Performance Summary

*After brokerage and taxes, returns are determined at the performed deals.

In September 2026, Models 1 and 3 returned -2.9 percent, and -5.9 percent respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's -6.1 percent return.

In September 2026, the Nifty Long-Short is up +18.0 percent.

For the Year 2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -18%, +7%, and +32% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +11%. 

For Financial Year 2025-2026 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -11.18%, +16.88% and -9.53% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of -5.05%.

 

Year To Date - 2026

Models 1 and 3 returned +6.05 percent and -6.70 percent respectively, compared to Nifty's -14.19 percent return for 2026.

The Nifty Long-Short year-to-date return (from January 1, 2026) is now -17.72 percent, compared to the Index's -14.19 percent.

Summary since inception

Since its debut, Model 1 has increased by 245.51 percent. The Nifty index has risen by 107.56 percent  over the same time span.

Since its debut, the Nifty long-short strategy has increased by 484 percent on the capital and 896 percent on the margin money.

Model 1 has been operational since July 13, 2020, whereas the Index Long-Short strategy has been operational since August 14, 2020. 

Since the inception, Model 3 is up +148.24%, compared to 107.56% for the Nifty Midcap Index. 

Model 3 has been operational since July 12th, 2021.

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