Weekly Market Analysis & Algo Performance: JAN 16, 2026

Portfolio Links

Model 1 Performance     (To know more about it click here)

Model 3 Performance    (To know more about it click here)     

Nifty Future Long-Short Strategy Performance   (To know more about it click here)

Weekly Portfolio Performance Chart

Equity Markets:
Indian equities entered the second full week of January 2026 in a consolidative and cautious phase, characterized by persistent foreign investor selling, intermittent profit-taking in heavyweight stocks, and selective sectoral divergence. The week was shortened to four trading days due to a market holiday on January 15 for municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra. Benchmark indices oscillated in a narrow range, reflecting an underlying tension between defensive domestic accumulation and external liquidation pressures stemming from US-India trade uncertainties and global macroeconomic headwinds.

Key Market Triggers

Q3 FY26 earnings season:- The week marked the heart of Q3 earnings, with results from IT majors (Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech), insurance giants (HDFC Life, SBI Life, LIC), and financials driving sharp stock-specific moves. Nifty50 PAT growth was forecast at 9.8% YoY for Q3, with IT services, autos, telecom, and metals & mining expected to lead, providing selective support to the indices even as broader markets stayed volatile.

US–India trade deal uncertainty:- Lingering concerns over the fate of the US–India trade deal, alongside fears of fresh US tariffs, kept investor sentiment cautious throughout the week. This was cited as a key overhang on export-facing sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals, and delayed FII flow normalization.

Persistent FII selling and DII support:- FIIs remained net sellers for multiple sessions, offloading about ₹8,800 crore in the previous week and continuing outflows through this week, marking the seventh straight session of selling by mid-January. DIIs countered with net inflows exceeding ₹15,700 crore, cushioning the downside but not reversing the overall weakness.

Rupee Depreciation and Currency Weakness : The rupee breached the 90 per dollar mark, becoming Asia's worst-performing currency with approximately 5% depreciation in 2025 and a further decline in early 2026. The rupee also depreciated over 19% against the euro and 14% against the British pound.

Weekly recap:

The Bank Nifty Index and the Nifty IT index have outperformed the Nifty Index 
this week.

This week, Nifty Midcap 100 Index is up +0.20 percent.
The Nifty Index is up +0.04 percent.

Key Levels for the Nifty Index Daily Timeframe
20   EMA - 25924
50   DMA - 25962
200 DMA - 25096

Nifty Weekly Timeframe Levels
Open - 25669.05
Low -   25473.40
High -  25899.80
Close - 25694.35

Nifty closed below 20 EMA & 50 DMA suggesting down trend in the Nifty Index.

Model 1 & Model 3

This week, Model 1 is up +1.73 percent and Model 3 is up +1.25 percent. 

Model 1 has outperformed the Index by +1.69 percent and Model 3 has outperformed the Index by +1.05 percent.

Nifty Long-Short

The Long-Short strategy for the Nifty Index has returned a positive result of +0.69 percent this week.

Next Week Update

The Nifty Long-Short Strategy's current position is Short.

Long-term Performance Summary

*After brokerage and taxes, returns are determined at the performed deals.

In December 2025Models 1 and 3 returned +3.7 percent, and +1.7 percent respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's -0.30 percent return.

In December 2025, the Nifty Long-Short is down -10.6 percent.

For the Year 2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -18%+7%, and +32% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +11%. 

For Financial Year 2024-2025 
Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
 

Year To Date - 2025

Models 1 and 3 returned -0.36 percent and -0.23 percent respectively, compared to Nifty's -1.67 percent return for 2026.

The Nifty Long-Short year-to-date return (from January 1, 2026) is now +4.86 percent, compared to the Index's -1.67 percent.

Summary since inception

Since its debut, Model 1 has increased by 225 percent. The Nifty index has risen by 138 percent  over the same time span.

Since its debut, the Nifty long-short strategy has increased by 644 percent on the capital and 1193 percent on the margin money.

Model 1 has been operational since July 13, 2020, whereas the Index Long-Short strategy has been operational since August 14, 2020. 

Since the inception, Model 3 is up +165%, compared to 118% for the Nifty Midcap Index. 
Model 3 has been operational since July 12th, 2021.
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