Portfolio Links
Model 1 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Model 3 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Nifty Future Long-Short Strategy Performance (To know more about it click here)
Weekly Portfolio Performance Chart
Market and Macroeconomic Update
Equity Markets:The Nifty moved in a range and finally closed below 25000 continued its downward trend, pressured by weaker-than-expected earnings from Axis Bank which dragged down the entire Bank Nifty index on Friday. Meanwhile, industrial production (IIP) growth slowed to a nine-month low of 1.2% in May, down from 2.6% in April, and June’s GST collections reflect softening consumer demand. Due to SEBI's action NSE option volume drops to 18 months low in June.
Monetary Policy:
In a significant move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. Additionally, the central bank surprised markets by reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 4% to 3%, injecting roughly ₹2.5 trillion of liquidity into the financial system. While this liquidity boost is expected to support credit growth and enhance monetary transmission, the RBI also shifted its policy stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral.” This signals a possible pause in further rate cuts in the near term.
In a significant move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. Additionally, the central bank surprised markets by reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 4% to 3%, injecting roughly ₹2.5 trillion of liquidity into the financial system. While this liquidity boost is expected to support credit growth and enhance monetary transmission, the RBI also shifted its policy stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral.” This signals a possible pause in further rate cuts in the near term.
Key Macroeconomic Highlights:
- GST Collections: June 2025 collections reached ₹1.85 lakh crore, marking a 6.2% YoY increase—highlighting slowdown in the consumer demand.
- Retail Inflation: June CPI inflation eased to 2.1% from 2.8% in May, which is lowest since 2019.
- Inflation Outlook: The RBI revised its CPI inflation forecast for FY26 down by 30 bps to 3.7%. A continued decline could open the door for further rate cuts next fiscal.
- GDP Growth: Q4 FY25 GDP growth came in at 7.4%, well above the 6.8% estimate. Full-year growth for FY25 was 6.5%, aligning with prior projections.
Global Economic Snapshot:
- Inflation: CPI inflation increased slightly to 2.7% in June (vs. 2.4% in May), while unemployment remained 4.1% same as last month. There is a risk of rising inflation due to the potential impact of upcoming tariffs, and the Federal Reserve has signaled no immediate plans to cut interest rates.
- US Economy: Revised estimate shows Q1 2025 GDP contracted by -0.5%, falling short of expectations.
- Federal Reserve Outlook: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now expects headline PCE inflation to reach 3.0% this year—up from its previous projection of 2.7%. Fed officials acknowledge signs of potential stagflation—slow GDP growth (forecast at ~1.4% for 2025), rising inflation, and modest unemployment rise to ~4.5%
Weekly recap:
The Bank Nifty Index and the Nifty IT index have underperformed the Nifty Index this week.This week, Nifty Midcap 100 Index is up +0.79 percent.
The Nifty Index is down -0.72 percent.
Key Levels for the Nifty Index Daily Timeframe
20 EMA - 25207
50 DMA - 25036
200 DMA - 24064
Nifty Weekly Timeframe Levels
Open - 25149.50
Low - 24918.65
High - 25255.30
Close - 24968.40
Nifty closed below 50 DMA and 20 EMA suggesting short term down trend in the Nifty Index.
Model 1 & Model 3
This week, Model 1 is down -1.25 percent and Model 3 is down -2.32 percent.
Model 1 has underperformed the Index by -0.53 percent and Model 3 has underperformed the Index by -3.11 percent.
Nifty Long-Short
The Long-Short strategy for the Nifty Index has returned a positive result of +1.97 percent this week.
Next Week Update
The Nifty Long-Short Strategy's current position is Short.
Long-term Performance Summary
Monthly Performance Summary of Models
*After brokerage and taxes, returns are determined at the performed deals.
In June 2025, Models 1 and 3 returned +6.2 percent, and +5.4 percent respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's +3.1 percent return.
In June 2025, the Nifty Long-Short is down -2.9 percent.
For the Year 2024 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned +25%, +45%, and +76% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +9%.
For Financial Year 2024-2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
For Financial Year 2024-2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
Year To Date - 2025
Models 1 and 3 returned -15.85 percent and -6.32 percent respectively, compared to Nifty's +5.60 percent return for 2025.
The Nifty Long-Short year-to-date return (from January 1, 2025) is now +29.44 percent, compared to the Index's +5.60 percent.
Summary since inception
Since its debut, Model 1 has increased by 234 percent. The Nifty index has risen by 131 percent over the same time span.
Since its debut, the Nifty long-short strategy has increased by 595 percent on the capital and 1102 percent on the margin money.
Model 1 has been operational since July 13, 2020, whereas the Index Long-Short strategy has been operational since August 14, 2020.
Since the inception, Model 3 is up +134%, compared to 115% for the Nifty Midcap Index.
Model 3 has been operational since July 12th, 2021.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Looking to invest? You can find our terms of service here. Or you can write to us and we will get back to you
){kind=link}