Portfolio Links
Model 1 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Model 3 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Nifty Future Long-Short Strategy Performance (To know more about it click here)
Weekly Portfolio Performance Chart
Market and Macroeconomic Update
Equity Markets:This week, the Nifty Index remained under pressure and continued its downward drift amid growing uncertainty around the upcoming tariff deadline on July 9th. Additionally, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers for the past four consecutive sessions. Industrial production (IIP) growth slowed to a nine-month low of 1.2% in May, down from 2.6% in April. GST collections for June also indicate a softening in consumer demand. The Nifty is currently consolidating around the 25,500 level.
Monetary Policy:
In a significant move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. Additionally, the central bank surprised markets by reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 4% to 3%, injecting roughly ₹2.5 trillion of liquidity into the financial system. While this liquidity boost is expected to support credit growth and enhance monetary transmission, the RBI also shifted its policy stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral.” This signals a possible pause in further rate cuts in the near term.
In a significant move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. Additionally, the central bank surprised markets by reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 4% to 3%, injecting roughly ₹2.5 trillion of liquidity into the financial system. While this liquidity boost is expected to support credit growth and enhance monetary transmission, the RBI also shifted its policy stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral.” This signals a possible pause in further rate cuts in the near term.
Key Macroeconomic Highlights:
- GST Collections: June 2025 collections reached ₹1.85 lakh crore, marking a 6.2% YoY increase—highlighting slowdown in the consumer demand.
- Retail Inflation: May CPI inflation eased to 2.8% from 3.16% in April, which is lowest since 2019.
- Inflation Outlook: The RBI revised its CPI inflation forecast for FY26 down by 30 bps to 3.7%. A continued decline could open the door for further rate cuts next fiscal.
- GDP Growth: Q4 FY25 GDP growth came in at 7.4%, well above the 6.8% estimate. Full-year growth for FY25 was 6.5%, aligning with prior projections.
Global Economic Snapshot:
- Inflation: CPI inflation increased slightly to 2.4% in May (vs. 2.3% in April), while unemployment remained 4.2% same as last month. There is a risk of rising inflation due to the potential impact of upcoming tariffs, and the Federal Reserve has signaled no immediate plans to cut interest rates.
- US Economy: Revised estimate shows Q1 2025 GDP contracted by -0.5%, falling short of expectations.
- Federal Reserve Outlook: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now expects headline PCE inflation to reach 3.0% this year—up from its previous projection of 2.7%. Fed officials acknowledge signs of potential stagflation—slow GDP growth (forecast at ~1.4% for 2025), rising inflation, and modest unemployment rise to ~4.5%
Weekly recap:
The Bank Nifty Index has underperformed the Nifty Index and the Nifty IT index has outperformed the Nifty Index this week.This week, Nifty Midcap 100 Index is up +0.49 percent.
The Nifty Index is down -0.69 percent.
Key Levels for the Nifty Index Daily Timeframe
20 EMA - 25204
50 DMA - 24844
200 DMA - 24090
Nifty Weekly Timeframe Levels
Open - 25661.65
Low - 25331.65
High - 25669.35
Close - 25461.00
Nifty closed above 200 DMA, 50 DMA and 20 EMA suggesting up trend in the Nifty Index.
Model 1 & Model 3
This week, Model 1 is down -2.25 percent and Model 3 is down -0.39 percent.
Model 1 has underperformed the Index by -1.56 percent and Model 3 has underperformed the Index by -0.88 percent.
Nifty Long-Short
The Long-Short strategy for the Nifty Index has returned a negative result of -3.30 percent this week.
Next Week Update
The Nifty Long-Short Strategy's current position is Short.
Long-term Performance Summary
Monthly Performance Summary of Models
*After brokerage and taxes, returns are determined at the performed deals.
In June 2025, Models 1 and 3 returned +6.2 percent, and +5.4 percent respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's +3.1 percent return.
In June 2025, the Nifty Long-Short is down -2.9 percent.
For the Year 2024 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned +25%, +45%, and +76% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +9%.
For Financial Year 2024-2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
For Financial Year 2024-2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
Year To Date - 2025
Models 1 and 3 returned -11.47 percent and +0.58 percent respectively, compared to Nifty's +7.68 percent return for 2025.
The Nifty Long-Short year-to-date return (from January 1, 2025) is now +27.58 percent, compared to the Index's +7.68 percent.
Summary since inception
Since its debut, Model 1 has increased by 252 percent. The Nifty index has risen by 136 percent over the same time span.
Since its debut, the Nifty long-short strategy has increased by 585 percent on the capital and 1083 percent on the margin money.
Model 1 has been operational since July 13, 2020, whereas the Index Long-Short strategy has been operational since August 14, 2020.
Since the inception, Model 3 is up +151%, compared to 117% for the Nifty Midcap Index.
Model 3 has been operational since July 12th, 2021.
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