Portfolio Links
Model 1 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Model 3 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Nifty Future Long-Short Strategy Performance (To know more about it click here)
Weekly Portfolio Performance Chart
Market and Macroeconomic Update
Equity Markets:This week, the Nifty Index witnessed a sharp reversal after a strong three-day rally. The downturn was largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions following Israel’s military strikes on Iran's nuclear and defense infrastructure. The incident has significantly heightened the risk of a broader conflict in the region. In response, global crude oil prices surged, and gold crossed the $3,400 mark as investors moved to safe-haven assets. As a result, the Nifty erased all of last week’s gains.
Monetary Policy:
Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 50 basis point cut in the repo rate to 5.5% and surprised markets with a reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 4% to 3%, infusing approximately ₹2.5 trillion of liquidity into the banking system. While the CRR cut is expected to aid the transmission of monetary easing and support growth, the RBI also shifted its stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral,” signaling a likely pause in the rate-cut cycle.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 50 basis point cut in the repo rate to 5.5% and surprised markets with a reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 4% to 3%, infusing approximately ₹2.5 trillion of liquidity into the banking system. While the CRR cut is expected to aid the transmission of monetary easing and support growth, the RBI also shifted its stance from “Accommodative” to “Neutral,” signaling a likely pause in the rate-cut cycle.
Key Macroeconomic Highlights:
- Inflation Outlook: The RBI revised its CPI inflation forecast for FY26 down by 30 bps to 3.7%. A continued decline could open the door for further rate cuts next fiscal.
- GDP Growth: Q4 FY25 GDP growth came in at 7.4%, well above the 6.8% estimate. Full-year growth for FY25 was 6.5%, aligning with prior projections.
- GST Collections: May 2025 collections reached ₹2.01 lakh crore, marking a 20.6% YoY increase—highlighting strong economic momentum.
- Retail Inflation: April CPI inflation eased to 3.16% from 3.34% in March.
Global Economic Snapshot:
- US Economy: Q1 2025 GDP contracted by -0.3%, falling short of expectations. CPI inflation moderated to 2.3% in April (vs. 2.4% in March), while unemployment ticked up marginally.
- Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed kept rates steady and signaled 50 bps of rate cuts over 2025, maintaining a 2.7% inflation target.
Weekly recap:
The Bank Nifty Index has underperformed the Nifty Index and the Nifty IT index has outperformed the Nifty Index this week.This week, Nifty Midcap 100 Index is down -1.33 percent.
The Nifty Index is down -1.14 percent.
Key Levels for the Nifty Index Daily Timeframe
20 EMA - 24791
50 DMA - 24278
200 DMA - 24083
Nifty Weekly Timeframe Levels
Open - 25160.10
Low - 24473.00
High - 25222.40
Close - 24718.60
Nifty closed above 200 DMA, 50 DMA and below 20 EMA suggesting short term down trend in the Nifty Index.
Model 1 & Model 3
This week, Model 1 is up +0.78 percent and Model 3 is down -2.29 percent.
Model 1 has outperformed the Index by +1.92 percent and Model 3 has underperformed the Index by -0.96 percent.
Nifty Long-Short
The Long-Short strategy for the Nifty Index has returned a negative result of -5.40 percent this week.
Next Week Update
The Nifty Long-Short Strategy's current position is Short.
Long-term Performance Summary
Monthly Performance Summary of Models
*After brokerage and taxes, returns are determined at the performed deals.
In May 2025, Models 1 and 3 returned +2 percent, and +10.4 percent respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's +1.7 percent return.
In May 2025, the Nifty Long-Short is down -9.3 percent.
For the Year 2024 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned +25%, +45%, and +76% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +9%.
For Financial Year 2024-2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
For Financial Year 2024-2025 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned -2.75%, +10.33% and +147.49% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +5.34%.
Year To Date - 2025
Models 1 and 3 returned -11.84 percent and -1.82 percent respectively, compared to Nifty's +4.54 percent return for 2025.
The Nifty Long-Short year-to-date return (from January 1, 2025) is now +28.21 percent, compared to the Index's +4.54 percent.
Summary since inception
Since its debut, Model 1 has increased by 250 percent. The Nifty index has risen by 129 percent over the same time span.
Since its debut, the Nifty long-short strategy has increased by 588 percent on the capital and 1089 percent on the margin money.
Model 1 has been operational since July 13, 2020, whereas the Index Long-Short strategy has been operational since August 14, 2020.
Since the inception, Model 3 is up +145%, compared to 112% for the Nifty Midcap Index.
Model 3 has been operational since July 12th, 2021.
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